涨了逾一个月，豆油行情未完待续？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in soybean oil futures prices is attributed to multiple factors, including rising biodiesel policy expectations in the U.S. and increasing international crude oil prices, which have collectively driven global oilseed prices higher [2]. Group 1: Price Drivers - The U.S. EPA's proposal to increase the biodiesel quota for 2026 and adjust exemption ratios has positively impacted CBOT soybean oil prices, which have also influenced domestic prices [2]. - Geopolitical tensions have contributed to stronger crude oil prices, providing additional support for the oilseed sector [2]. - The strengthening of palm oil prices has widened the price gap between soybean and palm oil, further driving up soybean oil futures [2]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Supply - Domestic apparent demand for soybean oil has remained high, with continuous inventory depletion since the fourth quarter of last year, and a low inventory point expected around March-April [2]. - Pre-holiday stocking demand ahead of the Chinese New Year has led to some oil mills experiencing delivery queues into early next month, resulting in a 15% decrease in commercial inventories compared to the previous month [2]. - The ongoing reduction in rapeseed oil imports has led to inventory depletion, causing market demand to shift towards soybean oil, which has further supported price increases [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upward trend in the oilseed sector may not be over, with attention needed on palm oil inventory levels at the end of January and production-demand data in February [3]. - As crushing volumes recover and stocking demands weaken, supply pressures for soybean oil may ease, although global oilseed market conditions and domestic structural support remain [3]. - A more cautious perspective suggests that the price increase potential for soybean oil may be limited, with mid-term downward pressure anticipated [4].