汰劣立规“反内卷” 中国电池产业转向价值竞争

Core Insights - The battery industry is entering a phase of "de-involution" as government policies aim to optimize capacity planning and regulate market competition, signaling an end to the era of disorderly growth in battery production [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - A joint meeting by four government departments emphasized the need to optimize capacity planning and avoid overcapacity risks in the battery sector [1]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a phased reduction of the export VAT rebate for battery products, decreasing from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and completely eliminating it by January 1, 2027 [1][2]. - The phased approach to the export VAT rebate aims to provide a transition period for the industry, allowing for the orderly exit of low-quality production capacities [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The reduction in export rebates is expected to increase export costs for companies, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on low-price strategies [2][6]. - Current production capacity in China's battery sector exceeds 3000 GWh, while actual demand is projected to be around 1500 GWh by 2025, leading to low utilization rates [2][3]. - The price of storage systems has dropped by 80% over three years, with some battery export prices falling below production costs, resulting in negative profit margins for certain companies [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite challenges, the demand for electric and storage batteries remains strong, with expectations for the share of storage batteries to increase from one-quarter to potentially one-half of the market [3][4]. - The new policies are expected to accelerate industry consolidation, pushing companies to focus on technological innovation and brand strength rather than price competition [2][3]. - The upcoming changes may lead to a surge in exports as companies rush to ship products before the rebate reduction takes effect, potentially causing supply chain strains [5][6]. Group 4: Globalization and Competitive Landscape - The shift away from subsidy dependence is anticipated to enhance the competitive edge of Chinese battery companies in the global market, focusing on technology, branding, and supply chain integration [9][10]. - Companies are expected to adapt by strengthening international collaborations and optimizing production strategies to mitigate the impact of rising costs due to the rebate changes [10][11]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the balance of supply and demand will increasingly depend on global market needs and technological advancements rather than just domestic production capacity [4][10].