沥青价格重心或继续上移

Group 1 - The core driving force behind the recent rise in asphalt prices is the geopolitical event of the U.S. raid on Venezuela, which has raised concerns about oil supply [1] - Venezuela's oil, particularly from the Maracaibo Lake region and the Orinoco heavy oil belt, is crucial for U.S. refineries that primarily process medium crude oil, making it an important supplement to shale oil [1] - In 2025, China's total asphalt production was 28.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, with refineries using or blending with Maracaibo crude producing approximately 15.13 million tons, up 13.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The domestic refinery raw material issues are still under negotiation, and the changes in heavy oil premium will be a key variable moving forward [2] - Currently, during the winter storage season, refineries in Hebei and Shandong have launched winter storage contracts for January to March, with initial prices ranging from 2,920 to 3,000 yuan per ton [4] - The geopolitical disturbances continue to support crude oil prices, which have raised asphalt costs by approximately 400 yuan per ton [5]