南非央行维持6.75%基准利率不变 4：2票决现分歧 12月通胀3.6%超目标

Core Viewpoint - The South African Reserve Bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 6.75% and the main lending rate at 10.25%, reflecting a cautious approach to observe inflation expectations and potential price pressures in food and electricity sectors [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision to keep interest rates unchanged aims to monitor whether inflation expectations will decline further [1] - There is a division within the Monetary Policy Committee, with 4 members supporting the current rate and 2 members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Forecasts - The central bank anticipates that December 2025 may mark a peak in inflation, with expectations for gradual easing thereafter [1] - Current data shows that the overall inflation rate in South Africa rose to 3.6% in December 2025, slightly up from November, exceeding the central bank's target of 3% [1] - The Reserve Bank has adjusted its inflation forecasts, lowering the average inflation expectation for 2026 from 3.5% to 3.3%, while raising the 2027 expectation from 3.1% to 3.2% [1] - Economic growth expectations remain unchanged, with forecasts of 1.4% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027 [1] Group 3: Currency Performance and Upcoming Events - The South African Rand has appreciated over 8% since the last monetary policy meeting in November 2025, outperforming many emerging market currencies [1] - The national budget is set to be released in February, with market attention on whether government spending aligns with the low inflation target [1]