储能业务井喷，上海工厂擎旗：特斯拉2025财报揭示的“新两极”

Core Insights - Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings report shows a revenue of $24.901 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, but with an EPS of $0.5 and a gross margin of 20%, both exceeding expectations [1] - The company’s energy storage business saw a significant growth, with installed capacity reaching 46.7 GWh in 2025, a 48.7% increase year-over-year, and Q4 alone contributing 14.2 GWh, marking a record high [1][4] - The Shanghai Gigafactory has become a strategic asset, delivering over 850,000 vehicles in 2025, accounting for nearly half of Tesla's global deliveries, and is now recognized as a core global export hub [1][2] Electric Vehicle Business: A "Lighthouse" Amidst Global Challenges - Tesla delivered approximately 1.636 million electric vehicles globally in 2025, facing significant challenges, particularly in the U.S. and European markets, where deliveries fell by 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 [2] - The U.S. market faced pressures from the termination of EV tax credits and increased competition, while in Europe, subsidy reductions and local competition led to a market share drop to 1.2% [2] - In contrast, the Shanghai Gigafactory performed robustly, delivering 851,000 vehicles, contributing over half of Tesla's global total, and achieving a record high of 191,700 vehicles in Q2 [2][3] Competitive Edge of Shanghai Factory - The Shanghai factory boasts over 95% localization in its supply chain and has established a highly efficient production network, producing a vehicle every 30 seconds, making it Tesla's most productive facility [3] - It has evolved into Tesla's global export center, with products shipped to Europe and Asia, achieving a record monthly export in October 2025 [3] Energy Storage Business: A Rising Growth Curve - The energy storage segment is highlighted by a 48.7% year-over-year growth, with 46.7 GWh installed in 2025, and Q4 alone contributing 14.2 GWh, marking a record for the quarter [4][6] - This growth is attributed to advancements in technology and product strategy, including the launch of the new Megapack 3 and Megablock, which significantly reduce costs and installation time [5] - A new energy storage factory in Houston is set to begin production by the end of 2026, targeting an annual capacity of 50 GWh, ensuring future growth [5] Future Outlook: Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Tesla is focusing on future innovations in autonomous driving and robotics, with the launch of Robotaxi services in Austin and plans for mass deployment by 2026 [7] - The development of the Optimus humanoid robot is also underway, with a third prototype expected in 2025 and mass production planned for 2026, showcasing Tesla's ambition in AI and robotics [7] Challenges and Strategic Path Forward - Tesla faces structural challenges due to over-reliance on the Model 3/Y, with production ramp-up of new models like Cybertruck falling short of expectations [8] - Increased competition in China from local brands is impacting market share, which has declined from a peak of 15% [8] - The company aims to stabilize its EV business through the Shanghai factory's efficiency, commercialize its energy storage solutions, and invest in autonomous driving and robotics for long-term growth [9]