国金证券：全球天然气市场进入LNG驱动新阶段 价格中枢将下移

Core Viewpoint - The global LNG market is expected to transition from a tight balance in 2025 to a loose supply situation by 2026, driven by a "super expansion cycle" in LNG production and a structural shift in supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - From 2020 to 2024, the global natural gas industry experienced a complete cycle of demand collapse and low prices, followed by supply shocks and price increases, leading to a structural reshaping of global trade [1]. - The Netherlands TTF spot price has shown extreme volatility, and the EU's LNG import share has fluctuated, with the U.S. becoming the largest LNG exporter and China the largest importer [1]. - By 2025, the global natural gas market is projected to be in a structurally tight balance, with demand growth slowing to 0.9% and supply relying on new North American LNG projects [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The year 2026 marks a critical turning point for the global LNG "super expansion cycle," with an expected cumulative addition of approximately 202 million tons of LNG capacity from 2026 to 2030, a 40% increase from 2025 [2]. - The expansion of LNG capacity will be concentrated in North America and the Middle East, leading to a shift from a multi-polar supply structure to a "U.S.-Qatar dual-core" model [2]. - The share of pipeline gas is expected to decline due to geopolitical factors, enhancing LNG's pricing power in the global market [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - From 2025 to 2030, the global natural gas demand is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.56%, with significant regional differentiation [2]. - Asia-Pacific is expected to see the fastest demand growth, with China as the core growth engine, while European demand is anticipated to contract due to renewable energy substitution and decarbonization policies [2]. Group 4: Price Trends - The global LNG market is expected to shift from a supply-constrained pricing system to one influenced by cost constraints and demand elasticity, with prices aligning more closely with U.S. and Qatari marginal supply costs [3]. - The Henry Hub price is projected to rise significantly by 2027, driven by LNG exports and electricity demand, marking the beginning of a new price upcycle in the U.S. market [4]. - The long-term cost of new natural gas wells in the U.S. is expected to stabilize between $3 and $3.5 per MMBtu, providing support for the Henry Hub price floor [4].