安集科技(688019)：CMP抛光液市占率稳步提升 功能性湿化学品快速放量 全年业绩实现高增长

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a revenue of 2.505 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 795 million yuan, up 49% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 705 million yuan, up 34% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company expects a revenue of 693 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%, with a net profit of 187 million yuan, up 33% year-on-year but down 20% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in quarterly profit is attributed to several factors: higher government subsidies in Q3 2025, foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations, and increased expenses towards the end of the year [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a sustained upturn, with the company's CMP polishing liquid market penetration deepening and rapid growth in functional wet chemicals sales, leading to high annual performance growth [1] - The global AI development is creating a "supply-demand imbalance" in the storage industry, with rising prices in logic foundry and packaging testing segments, which is expected to continue boosting upstream material demand [1] Group 3: Product Development - The company is expanding its product line in functional wet chemicals, covering various products such as post-etch cleaning solutions, photoresist stripping solutions, and etching solutions, with successful progress in advanced process post-etch cleaning solutions and increasing market share in alkaline polishing post-cleaning solutions [2] - The company is building a platform for electroplating liquids and additives, with successful localization of supply and ongoing development of various electroplating solutions for integrated circuits and advanced packaging [2] Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trend, with a new round of capital expansion anticipated, particularly from leading semiconductor manufacturers like Changxin, Changcun, and SMIC, which have significant capacity plans [2] - As a leading supplier of CMP polishing liquids in China, the company is entering a harvest period for its second growth curve in functional wet electronic chemicals and electroplating liquids, likely benefiting from the continuous release of new downstream capacities [2] Group 5: Investment Analysis - Based on the company's earnings forecast data, the net profit estimate for 2025 has been slightly adjusted to 795 million yuan (previously 811 million yuan), while maintaining net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 1.021 billion yuan and 1.274 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 57, 44, and 35 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating [2]