证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 21 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250721 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】2025 年 7 月中央城市工作会议学习体会*陈琦 朱启兵。"城市 更新"或是未来城市工作的重要内容。基建、地产投资有望得到提振。"创新" 是会议的重要关键词。 【电子】AI 端侧深度之智能驾驶（上）*苏凌瑶。在大模型引领的技术潮流 下，AI 能力加速赋能各类硬件终端，与一般硬件终端应用 AI 能力的方式不 同，智能驾驶将 AI 能力应用于改变物理世界。当前正值高阶智能驾驶商业 落地的关键时点，为探 ...

化工行业周报 20250720 国际油价下跌， TDI 、草甘膦价格上涨 今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，七月份建议关注：1、安 全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年"抢出口"等因素带来 的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的 能源企业等。 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 20 日 强于大市 投资建议 截至 7 月 20 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 23.36 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）69.37% 分位数；市净率为 1.90 倍，处在历史水平的 18.24%分位数。SW 石油石化市盈率（TTM 剔除负值） 为 11.20 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）的 18.91%分位数；市净率为 1.22 倍，处在历史水平的 4.85% 分位数。今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，七月份建议关注： 1、安全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年"抢出口"等因素带 来的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulation policies, supply-side changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush" in the first half of the year, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, and stable dividend policies in energy enterprises [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of July 7-13, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 22 saw price increases, 47 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable. 39% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 55% saw a decrease, and 6% remained unchanged. The top gainers included DMF, potassium chloride, and acetone, while hydrochloric acid and aniline were among the largest decliners [9][33] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude futures closing at $68.45 per barrel (up 2.93%) and Brent crude at $70.36 per barrel (up 3.02%). The U.S. average daily crude oil production was reported at 13.385 million barrels, a decrease of 48,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 850,000 barrels year-on-year [9][10] Product Price Changes - The average price of polysilicon increased to 31,200 CNY/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week, while glyphosate prices rose to 25,501 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.79% increase. The gross profit margin for glyphosate was reported at 10.85%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 129.88% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several investment themes: the sustained high prices of crude oil, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the recovery of demand supported by policy measures. Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and various technology firms in the electronic materials sector [10][11] Key Stocks for July - The report highlights "Satellite Chemical" and "Anji Technology" as key stocks for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in their recent financial reports [11][17]

□本报记者 王宇露 上周市场上涨，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数上涨1.78%，报1679.33点。阳光电源、泰格医药、康泰生 物等成分股上周表现强势；今年以来，信立泰、药明康德、安集科技等成分股涨幅居前。展望后市，机 构认为，当前市场对于利好信息的反映较为积极，多头力量较为强势，对后市表现较为乐观。 多只成分股表现强势 上周市场继续上涨，上证指数上涨1.09%，深证成指上涨1.78%，创业板指上涨2.36%，沪深300指数上 涨0.82%，品牌工程指数上涨1.78%，报1679.33点。 上周品牌工程指数多只成分股表现强势。具体来说，阳光电源上涨12.50%，排在涨幅榜首位；泰格医 药上涨10.70%，居次席；康泰生物、药明康德、国瓷材料、恒瑞医药分别上涨9.72%、8.94%、7.54%和 6.83%；上海医药、上海家化、欧派家居、恒生电子涨逾5%；智飞生物、东方财富、泸州老窖、中际旭 创涨逾4%；中兴通讯、新希望、广联达、广誉远、沪硅产业、芒果超媒、五粮液、山西汾酒涨逾3%； 中炬高新、中芯国际、爱尔眼科、紫光股份等涨逾2%。 今年以来，信立泰上涨47.42%，排在涨幅榜首位；药明康德上涨43.21%，居次 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI 1000 Information Technology Index is reported at 9130.36 points, with a one-month increase of 6.25%, a three-month increase of 11.71%, and a year-to-date increase of 7.69% [1] - The CSI 1000 Index series selects liquid and representative securities from each industry, forming 10 industry indices to provide diversified investment targets [1] - The top ten holdings of the CSI 1000 Information Technology Index include: O-film (2.69%), Huahong Semiconductor (1.54%), Heertai (1.42%), Siwei Tuxin (1.39%), Sifang Jichuang (1.33%), Jingfang Technology (1.27%), Chipone (1.25%), Weining Health (1.24%), Anji Technology (1.24%), and Tuobang Co. (1.2%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI 1000 Information Technology Index holdings is 57.12% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and 42.88% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] - The industry composition of the index holdings includes: Software Development (24.50%), Integrated Circuits (19.58%), Optical Electronics (14.73%), IT Services (12.38%), Semiconductor Materials and Equipment (9.51%), Electronic Components (7.54%), Electronic Terminals and Components (7.10%), Other Electronics (2.08%), Electronic Chemicals (1.84%), and Discrete Devices (0.73%) [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, and temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Tongcheng Travel, a leading OTA in China's lower-tier markets, benefiting from the tourism boom and support from major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip [3][6][8] - In 2024, Tongcheng Travel is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 17.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 2.79 billion, up 26.7% year-on-year [6] Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel is formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, positioning itself as a top three player in the OTA industry, providing comprehensive travel services including transportation and accommodation bookings [6][8] - The company has a significant user base from non-first-tier cities, allowing it to capitalize on the growth in lower-tier markets [8] Industry Analysis - The online travel market is expected to exceed CNY 1 trillion in 2024, driven by high demand in the cultural tourism sector and low penetration rates in lower-tier cities [7] - The current market structure is characterized by a dominant player (Ctrip) and several strong competitors (Tongcheng, Meituan, Feizhu), with a focus on differentiated competition [7] - The bargaining power in the transportation sector is low due to high supplier concentration, while the accommodation sector has a higher bargaining power with lower supplier concentration [7]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor materials ETF is showing strong performance, with significant increases in both price and trading volume, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the semiconductor materials and equipment sector [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 8, 2025, the semiconductor materials ETF (562590) rose by 1.27%, with a latest price of 1.11 yuan [3]. - Over the past two weeks, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.85%, ranking 2nd out of 5 comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover rate of 16.45% and a transaction value of 54.74 million yuan [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past year was 17.32 million yuan, ranking 2nd among comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Scale and Share Growth - In the past week, the ETF's scale increased by 4.11 million yuan, placing it 1st out of 5 comparable funds in terms of scale growth [3]. - The ETF's share count grew by 8 million shares in the past week, also ranking 1st among comparable funds [3]. Group 3: Tracking Accuracy - As of July 7, 2025, the ETF's tracking error over the past two months was 0.015%, the highest accuracy among comparable funds [3]. Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index (931743) includes 40 listed companies involved in semiconductor materials and equipment, reflecting the overall performance of this sector [4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 62.78% of the total index weight, with notable companies including Northern Huachuang (002371) and Zhongwei Company (688012) [4][6].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reform aimed at the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a significant policy shift from self-regulation to higher-level government intervention [6][7] - The market is expected to experience a "pulse-like" behavior due to unclear demand-side conditions, contrasting with the more robust demand seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [7][9] - There is a notable focus on the differentiation between "old industries" (e.g., steel, coal, cement) and "new industries" (e.g., new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic sectors), with a recommendation to prioritize sectors with external demand [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3472.32, reflecting a 0.32% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% [4] - The banking sector showed a strong performance with a 1.84% increase, while the beauty care sector declined by 1.87% [5] Industry Analysis - The report indicates a marginal recovery in production and demand expectations for June, with the PMI showing slight improvement, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial profits [9][10] - It highlights that the price pressures are expected to ease, and inventory levels are likely to remain resilient, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [9][10] - The report suggests that the profitability factors are anticipated to improve, with a focus on high profitability, small-cap, and high-valuation stocks expected to outperform in the coming month [10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]

Market Performance - The market experienced an upward trend last week, with the CSI Xinhua National Brand Index rising by 1.39% to 1649.96 points [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25%, the ChiNext Index by 1.50%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.54% [2] Strong Stock Performances - Notable strong performers included Anji Technology, which rose by 7.98%, and WuXi AppTec, which increased by 7.58% [2] - Other significant gainers included Yiling Pharmaceutical, Tiger Med, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, all rising over 6% [2] - The overall trend showed many stocks in the index gaining over 1%, indicating broad market strength [2] Year-to-Date Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, notable stock performances include: - Xintai rising by 55.34% - Anji Technology increasing by 45.75% - WuXi AppTec and Marubi both rising over 30% [3] Market Outlook - Analysts from Xing Shi Investment suggest that the market will continue to perform positively due to strong trading sentiment and sector rotation opportunities [4] - The overall risk premium in the A-share market remains at historically low levels, indicating high value [4] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with ongoing domestic policy support and emerging opportunities in sectors like artificial intelligence and new consumption [4][5] Investment Strategy - Wangzheng Asset maintains a strategy focused on "technology blue chips + innovative growth," emphasizing quality of business operations and undervalued stocks in sectors such as internet, electronics, and automotive [5] - The focus is also on high-potential innovative growth sectors as they mature and enter rapid growth phases [5]