The Good, the Bad, and the Unknown at Netflix

Core Insights - Netflix reported solid earnings with Q4 revenue exceeding $12 billion, an 18% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $0.56, slightly above Wall Street projections. However, the stock dropped due to management's forecast of slower revenue growth for 2026, projecting a growth rate of 12-14% compared to 16% in 2025 [2][3][10] Financial Performance - Q4 revenue was over $12 billion, up 18% from the previous year [2] - Earnings per share stood at $0.56, slightly above expectations [2] - The company reached approximately 325 million global paid memberships, adding 23 million subscribers in 2025 [2][3] Growth Outlook - Management anticipates a revenue growth rate of 12-14% for 2026, a decrease from 16% in 2025 [2][7] - The ad business is growing significantly, with ad sales expected to double in 2026 from $1.5 billion in 2025 [6][7] - The company is transitioning into a more mature phase, focusing on sustaining its business rather than hypergrowth [3][4] Strategic Moves - Netflix amended its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery to an all-cash offer of $27.75 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $72 billion, or $83 billion including debt [9][10] - The acquisition aims to secure a vast content library, enhancing Netflix's competitive position in the streaming market [10][15] - The all-cash structure is designed to provide immediate value to Warner Brothers shareholders and reduce stock price volatility [10] Debt and Financing - Netflix's debt is projected to increase from $34 billion to $42 billion to finance the acquisition, raising concerns about financial flexibility [10][11] - The company had $15.8 billion in debt at the end of 2020, which has been decreasing as it used debt to acquire content [11] - Management believes they can handle the increased debt and maintain cash flow, indicating confidence in long-term financial stability [11][12] Market Position - Netflix is recognized as the leader in streaming, but faces increased competition from platforms like YouTube, which is gaining market share [4][6] - The company is adapting to a more mature business model, focusing on content acquisition and strategic investments rather than rapid growth [3][4] - The acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery is seen as a critical move to bolster Netflix's content offerings and market power [15]