华创证券：首予太平洋航运“推荐”评级 穿越周期的小宗散运龙头船东

Core Viewpoint - Huachuang Securities initiates coverage on Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting its stable operations and potential benefits from the ongoing industry recovery [1] Company Overview - Pacific Basin Shipping is a leading operator of small and ultra-small bulk carriers, focusing on the transportation of minor bulk cargoes. The company has established a fleet that combines scale and flexibility, operating 266 dry bulk vessels by mid-2025, including 121 small handy and 144 ultra-small/ultra-large handy vessels [2] - The company holds a leading market share of 5% and 4% in small handy and ultra-small handy vessels, respectively, based on the capacity of vessels younger than 20 years [2] - The vessels are equipped with cranes for self-loading and unloading, allowing access to ports with shallow waters, locks, and narrow channels. The company has established 14 offices globally to better meet customer needs and optimize routing, achieving over 90% high loading rates and consistently outperforming market charter rates [2] Market Dynamics - The minor bulk shipping market remains resilient, with stable medium- to long-term demand for grain and minor bulk cargoes. The recovery of U.S.-China soybean trade is expected to drive a 4.4% growth in grain shipping volume by 2026, with minor bulk cargo demand growing at 2.0%, outperforming iron ore and coal demand [3] - On the supply side, industry capacity is expected to grow moderately, with small vessels still having potential for replacement. As of January 2026, the order book for bulk carriers is at a 12.5% share, the lowest in over two decades, with Handysize orders at only 8.9%, indicating insufficient capacity renewal [3] Catalysts for Growth - The focus is on the interest rate cut cycle and the linkage effect with larger vessels. Historically, in the latter half of interest rate cut cycles, indices like BDI, BSI, and BHSI have rebounded alongside global economic recovery, driven by improved liquidity and increased physical demand [4] - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to significantly boost turnover in the large vessel market, potentially increasing global iron ore shipping demand by 9.4% by 2030, which may also positively impact the small vessel market due to the interconnected nature of vessel markets [4]