UBS(US:UBS) Jin Rong Jie·2026-01-30 04:10Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a bullish stance on gold, raising its price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce, up from a previous target of $5,000 per ounce, representing a 24% increase. The firm expects a moderate decline in gold prices to $5,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - UBS has set extreme scenario forecasts for gold prices, with an upside target of $7,200 per ounce and a downside target of $4,600 per ounce, indicating a volatility close to one standard deviation [1] - The global gold demand is projected to grow by 1% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 5,002 tons, marking the first time total demand exceeds 5,000 tons [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Investment demand for gold surged by 84% to 2,175 tons, becoming the primary driver of total demand growth, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 801 tons and demand for gold bars and coins reaching 1,374 tons [1] - Central bank gold purchases totaled 863 tons, which, while lower than recent records, remain at high levels [1] Group 3: Market Influences - Poland has raised its gold holding target from 550 tons to 700 tons, suggesting that if more countries follow suit, it may indicate a reduced sensitivity of central banks to gold prices [1] - In the Chinese market, physical gold demand remains strong due to seasonal factors, although a decline is expected after the Lunar New Year [1] - UBS notes that a shift to a hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could exert downward pressure on gold prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions may drive prices higher [1]