特朗普：今晚官宣！他将是美联储新主席？市场押注其胜率飙至95%

Group 1 - The nomination probability of Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman exceeds 80%, with reports indicating that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate him [2][6] - President Trump plans to announce the next Federal Reserve Chairman on the morning of the 30th, with Warsh being a highly respected candidate in the financial community [6][12] - The market prediction platform Polymarket shows a 95% probability of Warsh being nominated as the new Chairman [2] Group 2 - Warsh is known for his hawkish stance, which has led to a rise in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, while commodity prices, particularly precious metals, have seen declines [4] - If nominated, Warsh's policies may include a unique combination of "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction," contingent on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements [11] - Warsh's experience spans academia, regulatory bodies, and the investment sector, providing him with a deep understanding of financial markets and monetary policy [9][10] Group 3 - Trump's long-standing criticism of Jerome Powell's leadership at the Federal Reserve highlights the tension between the administration and the central bank, with the new Chairman expected to influence future interest rate policies [7][12] - The potential appointment of Warsh could lead to significant adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy framework, impacting global financial markets and economic outlook [13]