Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-30 04:36Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is currently experiencing low levels of investment interest, with passive fund outflows causing disturbances in the funding landscape. However, a low valuation window for banks is opening up, driven by high dividends and low valuations appealing to long-term investors like insurance funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since Q3 2025, the preference for the banking sector among active funds has remained low, with a total market value of active fund holdings in banks at 30.545 billion yuan, accounting for 1.88% of total holdings, which is near a five-year low [1]. - The low allocation ratio for banks has expanded to 8.88%, indicating a shift in market style with significant rotation among sectors, particularly favoring non-bank financials, metals, and communications [1]. - The banking sector has underperformed, with a decline of 7.68% compared to other sectors, which have seen substantial gains, such as metals rising by 28.89% [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Impacts - Recent adjustments in the banking sector are primarily attributed to passive fund outflows, with net outflows from stock ETFs reaching 757.99 billion yuan, leading to an estimated net outflow of approximately 83.14 billion yuan from the banking sector [2]. - The largest four ETFs have seen a significant reduction in market share, with the average holding by the top ten holders decreasing by about 43% compared to the first half of 2025 [2]. - Although selling pressure remains, the space for further outflows is expected to contract, which may reduce the negative impact on the banking sector [2]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Outlook - The influence of long-term funds on the pricing of the banking sector is increasing, as the impact of both active and passive public funds diminishes [3]. - In a low-interest-rate environment, the stable dividends and high dividend yield of banks are attractive to long-term investors, with the average dividend yield for A-share banks currently at 4.62% [3]. - The outlook for credit growth is positive, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies, which may enhance the recovery of bank valuations [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), China Merchants Bank (600036), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Ningbo Bank (002142) [4].