Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-30 05:45Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is set to undergo a historic transformation starting April 1, 2026, with the cancellation of export VAT rebates on photovoltaic products and a gradual reduction of battery product rebates to zero, marking the end of tax incentives and initiating a new phase of high-quality development in a purely competitive market [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The launch of the photovoltaic ETF by Bosera on January 26, 2026, aims to facilitate investor access to leading companies in the photovoltaic industry [2] - Major companies like Longi Green Energy and JA Solar are implementing equity incentive plans targeting profitability by 2026, signaling a positive recovery in the industry [2] - The latest data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association indicates price increases for polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules by 38.9%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 2.3% respectively compared to early 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Zheshang Securities expresses optimism about the industry turning point, citing a 47% quarter-on-quarter increase in polysilicon prices in Q3 2025, which has helped some companies reduce losses [3] - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 570-630 GW in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 8-19%, with domestic installations projected at 270-300 GW [3] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Index has increased by 206.55% from December 31, 2012, to January 13, 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 and New Energy Index [3] Group 3: Policy and Demand - Recent policies have been introduced to regulate pricing and capacity in the industry, including discussions on benchmark pricing mechanisms to prevent below-cost sales and measures to address supply-demand imbalances in polysilicon [5] - Non-European and American markets are becoming the main sources of growth for global photovoltaic demand, with overseas expansion supporting industry needs [5] - The space photovoltaic sector is experiencing growth opportunities due to accelerated low-orbit satellite constellation construction, with projections of nearly 14,000 small satellites to be launched by 2030 [5] Group 4: Technological Advancements - New technologies such as Bifacial Cell (BC) and the use of low-cost metal pastes are rapidly developing, potentially lowering costs in the photovoltaic sector [6] - The Bosera photovoltaic ETF closely tracks the photovoltaic industry index, which includes up to 50 representative listed companies across the photovoltaic supply chain [6]