国际航协：2025年全球运力瓶颈依旧 货运需求创纪录

Core Insights - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts a steady growth in global air passenger demand and record levels in air freight demand for 2025, with air freight yields remaining over 33% higher than 2019 levels [1][4] Passenger Demand - Global air passenger demand is expected to grow by 5.3% in 2025 compared to 2024, with total capacity increasing by 5.2% [1] - The passenger load factor is projected to reach a historical high of 83.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - International passenger demand is anticipated to rise by 7.1%, while domestic demand is expected to grow by 2.4% [1] Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific airlines are projected to have the highest international passenger growth at 10.9%, with a load factor of 84.4% [2] - North America shows the lowest growth in international passenger demand at 2.1% [2] - Brazil's domestic market is expected to perform best with an 11.1% increase, while the U.S. domestic market is forecasted to contract by 0.6% [2] Industry Challenges - The industry faces two main challenges: the decarbonization process and supply chain issues, with the latter increasing airline costs by $11 billion [3] - 2025 is expected to be a low point for the aviation supply chain crisis, with hopes for a rebound in 2026 [3] Air Freight Demand - Global air freight demand is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2025, with capacity increasing by 3.7% [4] - International air freight demand is expected to rise by 4.2%, while yields are forecasted to decrease by 1.5%, marking the smallest decline in three years [4] - Despite increased competition, air freight yields remain 37.2% higher than in 2019 [4]