Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-30 08:54Core Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that 2026 will be a pivotal year for consumer-level AI in China, with chatbots transitioning from trial phases to user habit formation [1] - The report emphasizes that the current market is not ready to price the ultimate "winners and losers" in AI applications, suggesting that early market share shifts reflect distribution capabilities rather than competitive moats [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major internet platforms in China are expected to engage in fierce competition by 2026, leading to increased daily interactions with chatbots and higher token consumption [2] - Platforms will increase customer acquisition spending to capture mind share, directing budgets towards performance-driven channels [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Advertising - It is premature to make definitive trades on the final landscape of the Chinese chatbot market, as short-term share changes reflect distribution routes and marketing rhythms rather than solid competitive barriers [3] - The growth of daily multi-turn chatbot conversations will benefit AI infrastructure, increasing demand for reasoning and token throughput, with Alibaba and Baidu positioned to reflect this token growth theme [3] - Increased marketing intensity from giants like Alibaba and Tencent will create favorable conditions for companies like Kuaishou Technology to benefit from industry competition [3] Group 3: Enterprise Adoption - The turning point for enterprise AI adoption is when value propositions become measurable in high-stakes workflows, with software development being a clear validation scenario [4] - AI assistants are shown to improve throughput in critical workflows, with companies like Klarna reporting efficiency equivalent to 700 employees [4] - Platforms in China are productizing AI into enterprise toolkits, benefiting both foundational model developers and AI service providers [4] Group 4: Intelligent Agents - The next phase after consumer adoption of chatbots is "intelligent agent commerce," where interfaces not only answer questions but also initiate and complete transactions [6] - Alibaba's recent upgrade of its Qianwen application allows users to order food and book travel through chat, marking a significant transformation in China [6] - The immediate opportunity lies in improving funnel efficiency rather than immediate market share disruption, with chat interfaces reducing friction in discovery, comparison, and checkout processes [6] Group 5: Gaming Industry - The Chinese gaming industry is expected to perform strongly in 2026, with AI adoption being an underestimated benefit [7] - AI's impact is not in replacing creativity but in compressing the "creative to market" cycle, accelerating asset creation and iteration [7] - A stable regulatory environment supports the industry, with a record number of games approved in 2025, indicating a healthier content reserve [7]