1.30日加密市场暴跌，比特币以太坊行情简析

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with the total market capitalization shrinking to approximately $2.82 trillion, reflecting a 5.11% decline over 24 hours, and a trading volume of about $70 billion [1] - Bitcoin fell over 5%, dropping below the $85,000 mark, while other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and SOL saw declines exceeding 6% [1] - Over 227,000 traders faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount of approximately $1.014 billion [1] - The Fear and Greed Index plunged to 16, indicating "extreme fear" among investors, leading to widespread sell-offs [1] Fundamental Analysis - Bitcoin (BTC) faces short-term collapse pressure, with economic risks in the U.S. and over $500 million in liquidations resulting in a market cap loss of about $10 billion [3] - There was a net outflow of $11.37 million from ETFs, indicating a slowdown in institutional demand, although long-term holders are increasing supply, providing some buffer [3] - Ethereum (ETH) shows weak fundamentals, with a rise in active addresses but a slowdown in DeFi and Real World Asset (RWA) adoption; staking withdrawals have cleared, and institutional staking reached $170 million [3] Policy Environment - Uncertainty in the policy landscape has increased, as the Federal Reserve announced on January 28 to maintain interest rates, aligning with expectations [4] - The focus is shifting to the new Fed chair and the 2026 policy outlook, amid geopolitical risks, such as fears of Trump attacking Iran, which are causing market anxiety [4] - There is a risk of a U.S. government shutdown, as federal funding is set to expire on January 30, which could exacerbate market volatility if Congress fails to pass a new budget [4] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $83,000, having touched a low of approximately $81,000 earlier in the day before rebounding [5] - The cryptocurrency is in a downward trend on a weekly basis, with short-term support at the $80,000 level; a drop below this could see it fall to the $76,000 mark, a previous strong support level [5] - For Ethereum, a drop below $2,600 could lead to a decline towards the $2,000 level [5] Operational Strategy - The recommended approach is to focus on defense and observation, waiting for market panic to subside and clearer stabilization signals to emerge [7] - Short-term trading for Bitcoin can be considered within the $81,000 to $86,000 range, while Ethereum can be traded between $2,600 and $2,800, with a strict position control of 10% and proper stop-loss measures [7]