Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-30 10:35Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant drop in Microsoft's stock price due to Azure's growth rate falling short of market expectations, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook, emphasizing the company's overall strong performance metrics and future growth potential [1][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Microsoft reported a revenue of over $240 billion with a constant currency growth of 15%, an operating margin expansion of 160 basis points to 47%, and a 21% increase in EPS [1][11]. - The second fiscal quarter of FY2026 showed Azure's constant currency growth at 38%, slightly above company guidance but below investor expectations [1][2]. - The total commercial remaining performance obligations (cRPO) grew by 39% year-over-year, indicating robust future demand, with total RPO reaching $625 billion, a 110% increase [1][4]. Group 2: Azure Growth Constraints - CFO Amy Hood highlighted that Azure's growth is constrained by supply issues rather than demand, stating that customer demand exceeds supply capabilities [2]. - The management is balancing Azure growth with investments in first-party applications like M365 Copilot, which is seen as a long-term strategic decision [2]. Group 3: M365 Copilot and User Growth - M365 Commercial Cloud showed a constant currency growth of 14%, with 15 million paid M365 Copilot seats and a tenfold increase in daily active users [3]. - The growth in average revenue per user (ARPU) is becoming a key contributor, with E5 upgrades previously driving growth now being overtaken by Copilot as the primary growth driver [3]. Group 4: Profitability and Guidance - Microsoft achieved a gross margin of 68.0%, exceeding market expectations, and an operating margin of 45.6%, also above expectations [4]. - The company raised its full-year operating margin guidance from "essentially flat" to "slightly up," reflecting strong cost control and operational efficiency [4]. Group 5: Valuation and Price Target - Morgan Stanley maintains a price target of $650 for Microsoft, based on a 31x CY27 EPS of $21.17, slightly down from a previous 32x valuation [5]. - The firm believes that Microsoft's strong positioning and execution justify its premium valuation compared to peers [5].