鹏华基金祝松解读2026“固收+”配置主线：聚焦周期与新能源结构性机会

Core Viewpoint - The overall opportunities in the "fixed income +" sector in 2026 are greater than the challenges, with a focus on structural opportunities in equity assets, particularly in sectors with limited downside risk and significant upside potential [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Domestic macroeconomic growth in 2026 will be primarily supported by consumption growth and stable investment [2]. - Policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, such as "Two New" and "National Subsidy," are expected to continue, maintaining a relatively high growth rate in retail sales [2]. - Central investment projects are well-prepared for 2026, with infrastructure investment growth expected to stabilize and rebound [2]. Group 2: Risks and Market Conditions - External trade environment and real estate market trends remain significant variables affecting economic stability [2]. - Uncertainties in U.S.-China relations and the real estate market's ability to stabilize are critical factors to monitor [2]. Group 3: Equity and Bond Market Outlook - Positive policy direction is expected to support reasonable growth in the macroeconomy, providing solid backing for the equity market [3]. - The bond market is anticipated to experience slight fluctuations, with limited potential for significant increases in bond yields due to continued moderate monetary policy [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "fixed income +" sector is expected to present more opportunities than challenges, with equity assets likely to outperform bonds, enhancing yield potential [4]. - Current A-share PB valuations are at historically low levels, offering a clear valuation advantage over overseas markets [4]. - There is room for optimization in residents' asset allocation, with a potential shift from savings and pure bond products to equity assets as market performance improves [4]. - Three key investment strategies include managing bond investment rhythm, smoothing market volatility through position management, and focusing on quality equity assets in sectors with limited downside and some upside potential [4].