美银Hartnett预警：全球股市陷入“超买”困境，技术指标触及历史性卖出信号

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global stock markets have entered a dangerous "overbought" state, as indicated by a key internal metric reaching a threshold that suggests potential reversal [1] - As of the week ending January 28, 89% of MSCI global stock index constituents were trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, surpassing the historical "sell signal" threshold of 88% [1] - Historical data suggests that when this indicator exceeds the threshold, it typically indicates excessive market breadth, significantly increasing the risk of a technical pullback in the short term [1] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence between technical indicators and fund flows, with global equity funds experiencing a net outflow of $15.4 billion in the week ending January 28, indicating some investors are taking profits at historical highs [2] - Despite the net outflow, the Bull & Bear Indicator remains in the "extremely bullish" range due to broad market gains and stable credit market performance, highlighting a key market divergence [2] - This rare combination of technical, funding, and sentiment indicators suggests that underlying market momentum is quietly changing, potentially masking vulnerabilities despite apparent strength [2] Group 3 - U.S. equity funds attracted $9.2 billion in net inflows last week, indicating relative attractiveness amidst overall global fund outflows [3] - In contrast, European equities saw a reversal in fund flows, experiencing a net outflow of $400 million for the first time in seven weeks, marking a temporary halt to the previous inflow trend [3] - The preferred trading strategy for 2026, as stated by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, is to go long on bonds, international stocks, and gold, continuing the recommendation for a preference for international stocks since late 2024 [3]