UBS(US:UBS) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-30 12:33Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing a historical peak defined by structural demand and risk aversion, with gold prices showing the strongest monthly performance since 1982 [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investment demand, central bank strategic purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties are driving gold prices upward, leading to a significant revision of UBS's price target for gold from $5000 to $6200 for most of 2026 [1][3] - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of over 25%, continuing the momentum from last year's bull market, with prices hovering around $5344.98, despite a slight correction from $5400 [1][4] Group 2: Demand Statistics - Global gold demand is projected to exceed 5000 tons in 2025, with investment activities being the primary driver, including an increase of 801 tons in ETF holdings and a record high of approximately 1375 tons in physical gold purchases [4] Group 3: Central Bank Strategies - Central banks purchased 863 tons of gold last year, maintaining a high level historically, with Poland raising its gold reserve target from 550 tons to 700 tons, indicating a shift from price-sensitive to strategic allocation [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market's dynamics will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy and geopolitical situations, with UBS projecting an optimistic scenario target of $7200 and a pessimistic floor around $4600 for 2026 [5] - Post-U.S. midterm elections, gold prices may experience a moderate decline to $5900 due to reduced uncertainty, but its appeal as a "safe-haven asset" remains unchanged [5]