周大福(01929.HK):业绩表现超预期 定价首饰占比提升强化盈利韧性
Ge Long Hui·2026-01-30 12:55

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY26Q3 operational data, showing a retail value growth of 17.8% year-on-year, with mainland China market retail value increasing by 16.9% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets by 22.9% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The same-store sales in mainland China grew by 21.4%, while same-store sales volume declined by 13.9% [1] - In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales increased by 14.3%, with same-store sales volume declining by 21.6% [1] - The pricing jewelry segment showed strong growth, with same-store sales increasing by 53.4%, and average selling prices for gold and embedded jewelry rising to 9500 and 8900 HKD respectively [1] - The retail value growth for pricing jewelry reached 59.6%, increasing its share from 29.4% to 40.1% year-on-year, supporting the resilience of the group's gross margin [1] - The average selling price for gold jewelry increased to 11000 HKD, with same-store sales growing by 13.1%, and the retail value decline narrowing to -0.6% [1] Group 2: Store Optimization and Expansion - The company closed 230 stores in mainland China and opened 3 stores in Hong Kong and Macau, resulting in a total net store closure of 227, a slowdown compared to 300 closures in FY26Q2 [2] - The company plans to continue clearing inefficient stores while increasing the layout of high-productivity stores in prime locations [2] - The company is pursuing a "dual approach" strategy for overseas expansion, focusing on existing markets while actively exploring high-potential markets, with the first Southeast Asia flagship store opened at Singapore Changi Airport [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.16 billion, 9.80 billion, and 10.72 billion HKD for FY26-28, representing year-on-year growth of 38.0%, 20.1%, and 9.3% respectively [2] - Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 25x for FY26 is suggested, corresponding to a fair value of 20.68 HKD per share, with a "buy" rating recommended [2]

CHOW TAI FOOK-周大福(01929.HK):业绩表现超预期 定价首饰占比提升强化盈利韧性 - Reportify