特朗普威胁与寒潮双击！欧洲天然气1月狂飙38%

Core Insights - The European natural gas market is experiencing significant volatility due to a combination of severe cold weather and urgent inventory shortages, leading to the largest monthly price increase in over two years, with a cumulative rise of approximately 36% this month [1][3] - The market sentiment has fundamentally reversed in the past month, driven by a surge in gas consumption and disruptions in U.S. production due to a winter storm, prompting traders to cover previously held short positions [3][4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly tensions involving Iran and the situation in Ukraine, are adding layers of uncertainty to energy prices, making them more sensitive to traditional supply and demand data [5][6] Market Dynamics - The ongoing cold wave and rapid depletion of fuel inventories have heightened concerns over supply security, with current inventory levels falling below seasonal norms, creating a tight supply-demand balance [4][5] - Despite a rebound in U.S. LNG exports alleviating some panic, the impending cold snap in Europe is expected to increase heating demand, further straining already tight inventory buffers [4][6] - The benchmark Dutch gas futures for March delivery were trading at €38.59 per megawatt-hour, reflecting significant volatility, with prices having risen as much as 2% during early trading [6]