野村证券专家会议聚焦铜缆市场：与光模块并非绝对替代

Core Insights - The global high-speed copper cable interconnect market is projected to reach approximately $5 billion by 2026, with market share concentrated in three main product types: Active Electrical Cables (AEC), Active Copper Cables (ACC), and Direct Attach Cables (DAC) [1] - AEC is expected to account for 35%-40% of the market, becoming the main driver of growth, while ACC holds a limited share of 5%-10%, and DAC dominates with 50%-60% due to its mature technology and cost advantages [1] - The trend indicates an increasing share of AEC as AI data centers demand higher transmission rates and stability, with AEC's advantages in active signal amplification and error correction making it suitable for high-speed, short-to-medium distance interconnects [1] Market Dynamics - Copper cables and optical modules are not in an absolute substitution relationship; instead, they complement each other based on application scenarios, with copper cables maintaining cost and power consumption advantages in short-distance applications [2] - AEC and DAC are limited to effective transmission distances suitable for intra-rack or short inter-rack connections, with copper cables being the optimal choice for high-density, short-distance interconnects in AI data centers [2] Pricing and Cost Structure - The price of high-speed copper cables is expected to remain stable through 2026, with no significant fluctuations, driven by improved supply capabilities and steady demand [4] - The cost structure of high-speed copper cables is characterized by a focus on core components, with copper material costs being relatively limited; self-developed re-timer chips play a crucial role in cost control [5] Industry Trends - The demand for AEC and DAC is expected to grow significantly due to the deployment of next-generation chip clusters by leading global AI companies and cloud service providers, particularly for 800G AEC [7] - AEC is anticipated to continue replacing DAC and optical modules in certain short-distance scenarios, leading to a steady increase in market share [7] - Companies with self-developed re-timer chip capabilities will have a competitive edge in cost control and product margins, becoming a core competitive barrier in the high-speed copper cable industry [5][7] Future Outlook - The high-speed copper cable market is entering a phase of "demand explosion, structural optimization, and copper-optical complementarity," driven by the expansion of AI data centers [8] - Focusing on high-end products like AEC and developing core chip technologies will be key for industry participants to capture growth opportunities [8] - Companies with core technological advantages and strong ties to leading AI players are expected to achieve higher growth premiums [8]