世行预测2026年乌兹别克斯坦将跻身中亚增长最快经济体行列

Core Insights - Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are projected to rank among the top in GDP growth within the ECA region by 2026, according to the World Bank's January report [1] - The average economic growth rate for the ECA region is forecasted at 2.4% for 2026, supported by declining inflation, improved financial conditions, increased EU funding absorption, and rising defense spending [1] - Central Asia is expected to remain the fastest-growing sub-region in the ECA, with a combined GDP growth of 6.2% for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in 2025, slowing to 5% in 2026 [1] Economic Projections - Kazakhstan's economic growth is anticipated to slow to 4.5% due to stabilized oil production and declining global commodity prices [1] - High gold prices are expected to support the economies of other Central Asian countries, with projected growth rates of 6.5% for Kyrgyzstan, 6.2% for Tajikistan, and 6% for Uzbekistan, keeping them among the leaders in regional GDP growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The economic outlook for the ECA region faces significant risks, including the potential escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could heighten geopolitical uncertainty and suppress economic activity [1] - High inflation may weaken consumer spending, and a slowdown in the Russian economy could lead to decreased export growth for the region [1] - Extreme weather events, such as frequent droughts and high temperatures, pose threats to agricultural production, water resources, and infrastructure, particularly impacting Central Asia [1]