长春高新净利预降超九成：研发支出增长，核心产品进入医保后调整销售策略及定价

Core Viewpoint - The company, Changchun High-tech (SZ000661), has issued a shocking earnings forecast for 2025, predicting a significant decline in net profit compared to the previous year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses, adjustments in sales strategies following the inclusion of long-acting growth hormone products in the national medical insurance catalog, and losses from its subsidiary [2][3]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between 150 million to 220 million yuan, a drastic decrease of 91.48% to 94.19% from 2.583 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The forecasted net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2025 is estimated to be between 437 million to 507 million yuan, down 82.09% to 84.56% from 2.830 billion yuan in the previous year [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Profit Decline - The decline in profit is attributed to multiple factors, including increased R&D expenses as several products enter clinical stages and higher sales expenses for promoting new products [3]. - The company adjusted its sales strategies and pricing for long-acting growth hormone products after they were included in the national medical insurance catalog, which negatively impacted revenue and profit [3]. - Losses from the subsidiary, Changchun Baike Biotechnology Co., further contributed to the overall decline in performance [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - The company holds a 100% market share in the pegylated recombinant human growth hormone injection and a 68.4% market share in short-acting growth hormone products, indicating a strong competitive position [4]. - However, starting in 2024, the company began experiencing a downward trend in performance, with revenues and net profits decreasing by 7.55% and 43.01%, respectively, in 2024 [5]. - The introduction of price reductions for growth hormones in 2025 is expected to exert additional pressure on revenue growth [5]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which rose by 23% to 1.733 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing 17.68% of total revenue [5]. - A recent business development transaction with Yarrow Bioscience, Inc. is expected to yield significant future payments, although these revenues will not be recognized in the 2025 financial statements [6]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its overseas market presence and has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support this initiative [6].