Essex Property to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Core Insights - Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS) is expected to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 4, with anticipated year-over-year growth in revenues and core funds from operations (FFO) per share [1][10] Company Performance - In the last reported quarter, Essex Property achieved a core FFO per share surprise of 0.25%, driven by growth in same-property revenues and net operating income (NOI), although higher operating and interest expenses dampened results [2][10] - Over the past four quarters, Essex Property's earnings have consistently exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with an average surprise of 0.76% [3] Market Conditions - The US apartment market showed signs of softening in Q4 2025, with net move-outs of approximately 40,400 units, marking the first seasonal pullback in three years [4] - Supply pressures remain significant, with about 409,500 units delivered in 2025, including 89,400 in Q4, leading to a decline in occupancy to 94.8% and a 1.7% decrease in effective asking rents quarter-over-quarter [5] - Coastal and tech-oriented markets like New York and San Francisco continue to experience modest rent growth, while supply-heavy markets such as Austin and Phoenix face more significant rent pressures [6] Projections and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Essex Property's Q4 revenues is $476.57 million, reflecting a 4.86% year-over-year increase, with same-property revenues estimated at $414.75 million [9][10] - For Q4 2025, core FFO per share is projected to be between $3.93 and $4.03, with the consensus estimate remaining at $4.00, indicating a 2.04% year-over-year increase [11] - For full-year 2025, core FFO per share is expected to be in the range of $15.89 to $15.99, with a consensus estimate of $15.97, representing a 2.37% year-over-year increase on revenues of $1.88 billion [12] Challenges Ahead - Essex Property may face leasing challenges in Q4 due to elevated supply impacting rent growth and occupancy, alongside persistent higher interest expenses [8][10]