美顶级投行改了，“最新情况表明，中国还要翻一番”

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot sales in 2026, expecting a 133% increase this year to 28,000 units, doubling the previous estimate of 14,000 units [1] - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to grow exponentially, from approximately 12,000 units in 2024 to 262,000 units by 2030, and reaching 2.6 million units by 2035 [1] Industry Growth and Cost Reduction - The production costs for robots are expected to decline, lowering the purchase threshold; raw material costs for robot production in China are anticipated to decrease by 16% this year [3] - By 2035, global component prices are expected to drop by about 70%, leading to significant price reductions for humanoid robots [3] - Prices for humanoid robots in middle and low-income countries, including China, are projected to fall from $50,000 in 2024 to approximately $21,000 by 2050 [3] Market Penetration and Application - By 2036, the number of humanoid robots in use globally is expected to reach 25.4 million, accounting for 2% of the overall robot market, with this share increasing to 13% by 2040 and 42% by 2044 [3] - By 2050, the global deployment of humanoid robots may exceed 1 billion units, with over half of these applications in middle and high-income countries [3] China's Dominance in Humanoid Robotics - China is currently the largest market for humanoid robot applications, with over 80% of the global deployment expected by 2025 [3] - The domestic humanoid robot industry has begun extensive market promotion, with several manufacturers partnering with the CCTV Spring Festival Gala to showcase their products [4][5] Investment and Industry Trends - The increasing presence of robot manufacturers at the Spring Festival Gala reflects three major industry trends: focus on consumer-level applications, reaching the C-end market, and transitioning from experimental technology to commercial deployment [7] - A report by IDC indicates that the humanoid robot market will experience explosive growth in 2025, with an estimated shipment of 18,000 units and sales of approximately $440 million, marking a year-on-year increase of about 508% [7] Government Support and Competitive Landscape - Since 2015, the Chinese government has prioritized robotics as a key industry, leading to rapid development and the establishment of over 150 humanoid robot companies [8] - The government has implemented policies to support the robotics industry, aiming for China to achieve international leadership in robotics by 2035 [8] - Elon Musk has acknowledged that China's humanoid robot sector poses the most significant competition for Tesla, highlighting China's manufacturing capabilities and advancements in AI technology [9]