惊魂跳水！白银一度重挫35%，贵金属狂潮已见顶？

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has alleviated market concerns regarding the Fed's independence, leading to a significant rise in the dollar and a sharp decline in precious metals prices [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The COMEX silver price for February delivery plummeted over 35%, reaching a low of $74 per ounce, while COMEX gold fell more than 10%, nearing $4,700 [2]. - The sell-off extended to the entire precious metals market, with LME platinum and palladium futures both dropping over 15%, entering a technical bear market alongside silver [2]. Group 2: Analysis of Price Movements - Analysts attribute the panic selling to profit-taking and overcrowded trading positions, with leveraged positions exacerbating market volatility [3][4]. - The market is currently trading on "hawkish" expectations regarding Warsh's nomination, which has contributed to a stabilization of the dollar and a decline in precious metals prices [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The precious metals market has seen a significant accumulation of leveraged positions, particularly in silver, leading to forced selling as prices dropped [3][4]. - Retail investor sentiment has been a significant driver of recent silver price volatility, indicating a crowded trade environment [4]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Over the past 12 months, precious metals prices surged due to various factors, including market volatility, dollar depreciation, and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high, with total demand expected to exceed 5,000 tons by Q4 2025, valued at $555 billion, marking a 45% year-on-year increase [6]. - Despite a slowdown in central bank gold purchases, the demand for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty remains strong, with geopolitical events continuing to drive safe-haven demand [6][7]. Group 5: Long-term Projections - A hypothesis suggests that if private investors increase their gold allocation from 3% to 4.6%, gold prices could theoretically rise to between $8,000 and $8,500 per ounce [7]. - Short-term corrections in gold and silver prices may present buying opportunities, with a reasonable support level for gold identified below $5,000 per ounce [7].