崩了！金价两天狂跌141点，1099关口失守，抄底机会来了？

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant and rapid decline, with domestic gold prices dropping from 1240 CNY/gram to a low of 1099 CNY/gram within two days, marking a daily drop of over 10% [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The decline is not isolated, as the international market also faced turmoil, with London spot gold falling nearly 450 USD/ounce after reaching a historical high of 5600 USD/ounce, resulting in a maximum daily drop of over 8% [3] - The market is undergoing a systemic sell-off in the precious metals sector, affecting New York futures and Shanghai gold futures [3] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The core trigger for this downturn is the shift in Federal Reserve policy, which has signaled a hawkish stance, significantly reducing the probability of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, thus breaking previous market expectations for easing [5] - The strong rebound of the US dollar index and rising US Treasury yields have diminished the value of gold as a non-yielding asset, highlighting the "see-saw" effect between the dollar and gold [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market was due for a correction after a substantial increase in gold prices, which rose over 30% since the beginning of the year, with the daily RSI indicator exceeding 90, indicating extreme overbought conditions [7] - The breach of key support levels triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations, leading to a rapid decline in gold prices [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted dramatically, with previous scenes of consumers eagerly purchasing gold bars and jewelry now replaced by a cautious and fearful outlook, as retail gold prices dropped nearly 100 CNY in a single day [9] - Investors are torn between the decision to buy the dip or remain on the sidelines, with leveraged traders facing significant losses and frequent short-term liquidations [9] Group 5: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that this decline is a technical correction rather than the end of a gold bull market, as global inflation remains sticky and geopolitical tensions have not fully eased, preserving gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes [11] - Ordinary investors are advised against blindly buying the dip, emphasizing the need to control positions and gradually enter the market, while long-term investors should consider their risk tolerance and diversify their entry points [11] Group 6: Future Considerations - The precious metals market is undergoing volatility, and rationality is emphasized as a key investment principle, with a focus on monitoring Federal Reserve policy, dollar index trends, and non-farm inflation data to navigate market dynamics [12]