淮北矿业(600985)：稀缺成长标的 盈利拐点将至

Core Viewpoint - Huabei Mining is a leading coal enterprise in East China, focusing on a development strategy that relies on coal while diversifying its operations, forming a comprehensive coal utilization industry chain from mining to processing and power generation [1] Coal Business - The coal business remains the main source of gross profit for the company, accounting for approximately 60% of gross profit as of June 2025, while the coal chemical business has seen a recovery, contributing about 26% [1] - Production growth is expected from the resumption of operations at the Xinh Lake Mine and the commissioning of the Tao Hutou Mine, with the Xinh Lake Mine expected to contribute significantly to coal output [2][3] Coal Chemical Business - The company’s coal chemical segment is projected to see growth from the ramp-up of a 60,000-ton/year anhydrous ethanol project, which utilizes approximately 450,000 tons of methanol annually [3] - The project is expected to achieve a capacity utilization rate of around 91% by 2025, contributing to sustained profit growth in the coal chemical sector [3] Power Generation - The company is investing in a 2×660MW supercritical coal-fired power generation project, expected to be operational by 2026, which will utilize advanced reheat technology [3] - This project is anticipated to contribute net profits of 1.17/1.76/2.34 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028 under neutral pricing assumptions [3] Sand and Gravel Aggregate Business - The company has a certified production capacity of 27.4 million tons/year in the sand and gravel aggregate sector, with plans to increase this to 40.9 million tons/year following the commissioning of new mines [4] - The sand and gravel business is expected to contribute net profits of 2.12/2.62/3.11 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028 [4] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditure is expected to decrease as major projects transition from construction to operational phases, enhancing the company's ability to return value to shareholders [5] - The company has committed to distributing at least 35% of its net profit to shareholders in cash annually from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing its strong dividend profile [5] - The company is actively managing its market value and enhancing investor returns through various initiatives [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Huabei Mining from 2025 to 2027 are 429.81/477.28/508.09 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 14.95/26.24/41.02 billion yuan [6][7] - The company’s coal business shows strong growth potential, with ongoing expansion in power and non-coal mining sectors, indicating a diversified growth strategy [7]