白羽肉鸡春节行情火热 供需共振推高价格

Core Viewpoint - The white feather broiler market is experiencing a strong "Spring Festival market" driven by supply contraction and holiday demand, with significant price increases observed in various chicken products [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of January 30, large-sized chicken wings are priced close to 50 yuan/kg, up over 20% from the low in October 2025; single-frozen chicken breast prices have risen over 30% to 9.9 to 10.5 yuan/kg [1]. - The actual transaction price of live chickens in Shandong has reached 3.9 yuan/jin, marking a new high for 2026 [1]. - During the week of January 23 to 29, the comprehensive selling price of white feather broiler products increased by 1.31%, while chick prices surged by 28.90% due to heightened restocking expectations [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current price increase is attributed to a tight supply-demand situation, with smooth price transmission from live chickens to end products, leading to an overall rise in the white feather broiler industry chain [2]. - Despite the current high prices, the industry is expected to expand in 2025, with a projected slaughter volume of 9.294 billion chickens, a year-on-year increase of 7.49%, indicating that the tight situation is more of a temporary mismatch rather than a long-term capacity issue [2]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in France at the end of 2025 has led to another pause in domestic breeding, raising concerns about supply for the second half of 2026 [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Based on existing grandparent stock, the company expects to sell over 600 million broiler chicks in 2026, ensuring short-term supply stability [3]. - The market anticipates a rebound in pork prices in the second half of 2026, which may drive demand for chicken as a substitute, further supporting chicken prices [3]. - The current Spring Festival market is characterized by a combination of short-term holiday demand and medium-term supply constraints, with expectations of a "loose then tight" pattern in the white feather broiler industry chain for 2026 [3].