沃什的降息主张会从预期转为现实吗？

Group 1 - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman reflects President Trump's intention to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy, aligning with his calls for lower interest rates to stimulate growth [2][3] - Warsh has a history of criticizing the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, arguing that it is outdated and overly reliant on historical data, which led to misjudgments about inflation in 2021-2022 [3][4] - His recent shift in perspective includes advocating for interest rate cuts, driven by optimism about the productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI), suggesting that these gains could mitigate inflationary pressures [4][5] Group 2 - Following Warsh's nomination, the US dollar strengthened, leading to declines in global stock markets and significant drops in precious metals prices, indicating market volatility in response to interest rate expectations [5][6] - The potential for Warsh to support a 50-100 basis point rate cut in the medium to long term could enhance the attractiveness of emerging markets, including China, particularly in technology and export sectors [6]