24小时之内，特朗普与美联储的博弈正式结束，六月份将是分水岭

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing power struggle between the Federal Reserve and the White House signals important implications for the future of the global economy, particularly with the upcoming appointment of a new Fed chair in June [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced on January 29 to maintain interest rates, marking the first pause since September 2025, with expectations for a rate cut in June 2026 [1]. - Powell stated that the U.S. economy is on a "solid foundation," and both inflation and employment risks have "diminished," indicating that a rate cut is unlikely in the near term [3]. - The core inflation rate in the U.S. has not yet reached the 2% target, and tariffs are a significant factor in the Fed's decision-making process [3]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Kevin Warsh is set to replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair, which may introduce a more aggressive economic policy approach [1][4]. - Warsh advocates for a balance between encouraging the real economy and managing liquidity, which could lead to greater market volatility [4]. - The transition from Powell to Warsh raises questions about the consistency of future policies between the Fed and the White House [6]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The relationship between Powell's rhetoric and Trump's aggressive tariff policies reflects a complex political balance, with potential for renewed conflict after Warsh's appointment [6]. - The effectiveness of Trump's tariff policies in reviving U.S. manufacturing remains uncertain, as they may accelerate industry transformation rather than stabilize it [6]. - The upcoming June decisions by the Fed are anticipated to have significant repercussions not only domestically but also on the global economic landscape [8].