专家预计房地产投资降幅将显著收窄，但仍待需求端支持措施加码

Core Insights - The forum held on January 29, 2026, focused on the future of China's real estate industry amidst macroeconomic changes and urban development strategies [1] - The real estate sector is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one of quality improvement and structural optimization, facing both challenges and opportunities [2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is seen as a critical transition period for the real estate industry towards high-quality development [2] - The industry has moved past large-scale expansion and is now in a phase of optimizing existing stock and improving quality, with a focus on stabilizing market confidence and addressing supply-demand imbalances [2] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - Stable growth in consumer demand is essential for revitalizing the real estate market, which relies on improved employment, income, and asset stability [3] - Demand in 2026 is expected to improve, with a projected growth rate of 4%-5%, supported by ongoing consumer policies and recovery in employment and income [3] Group 3: Urban Renewal and Quality Housing - Urban renewal and the construction of quality housing are identified as key drivers for the industry's transformation, emphasizing the need for new supply rather than just new developments [4] - Policies related to urban renewal have been implemented frequently, with significant examples demonstrating successful revitalization and demand stimulation [4] Group 4: Market Predictions and Trends - The overall real estate market in 2026 is anticipated to exhibit an "L-shaped bottoming" pattern, with new residential prices expected to decline by 1% to 0%, indicating a gradual stabilization rather than a full recovery [5] - Core cities are expected to see moderate price increases of 2%-3%, while weaker cities may continue to struggle with high inventory and population outflows [7] Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Recommendations for 2026 include enhancing demand-side support through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions, increasing mortgage tax deductions, and optimizing housing fund policies to lower purchasing costs [7]