“踩踏式”暴跌之后，金银价格“到底”了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced a sudden shift with panic selling, leading to significant price declines, with gold prices dropping by up to 12% and silver prices falling over 35% in the last two trading days of January [1][2]. Price Adjustments - Domestic gold jewelry brands adjusted their prices in response to the drop in gold and silver prices. For instance, on January 31, Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price fell to 1625 CNY per gram, and its gold bars dropped to 1425 CNY per gram, compared to 1706 CNY and 1496 CNY per gram on January 29 [1]. Market Conditions - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to an overheated market, with indicators showing extreme conditions. The volatility of gold ETFs reached 46.02%, nearing historical highs, and the monthly increase in gold prices exceeded 20%, a rare occurrence since 1968 [2]. Influencing Factors - The market interpreted President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair as a potential shift towards a more hawkish monetary policy, increasing risks associated with future monetary easing [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the precious metals market may require time to stabilize and find a new equilibrium price. The current market dynamics indicate a potential for continued high volatility, with the possibility of a second bottom and back-and-forth movements in prices [4]. Long-term Perspective - Despite short-term fluctuations, the fundamental support for gold and silver remains intact. Factors such as high global debt, inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive strategic demand for gold. Additionally, silver's demand is supported by structural needs in energy transition and AI, with supply constraints likely to persist [4].