TENCENT(HK:00700) Huan Qiu Wang·2026-02-01 03:00Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market demonstrated strong resilience in January 2026, with significant net inflows from southbound funds driving the Hang Seng Index up by 6.85% to 27,387.11 points, marking a nearly 7% monthly increase [1][2]. Fund Flow Analysis - In January, southbound fund flows exhibited clear phase characteristics, with net inflows exceeding 50 billion HKD on multiple days in early January due to favorable domestic policies, RMB appreciation, and AI industry valuation recovery expectations [2]. - Mid-January saw a temporary decline in fund accumulation due to rising geopolitical risks and valuation corrections in certain sectors, leading to net sell-offs in cyclical stocks like China Mobile and Zijin Mining [2]. - By late January, the Hang Seng Index successfully broke through the 27,000-point mark, supported by surging AI computing demand and better-than-expected earnings from leading consumer companies, with daily net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 30 billion HKD [2]. Industry Performance - The Hong Kong stock market in January reflected a "high prosperity track and policy dividend sector resonance" pattern, with the technology sector leading the gains [3]. - Notable performers in the technology sector included Longi Green Energy, which surged by 61.90% due to increased global AI data center demand, and Zhiyuan AI, which saw a 94.66% increase post-listing [3]. - In the consumer sector, new consumption leader Mingming Hen Mang rose by 73.71%, supported by store expansion and improved profitability, while Pop Mart benefited from a surge in demand for IP derivatives, increasing by 19.13% [3]. - In the financial and real estate sectors, China Life surged by 27.39% due to governance optimization and improved capital expectations, while China Jinmao and New World Development rose by 42.98% and 56.53%, respectively, benefiting from policy optimizations [3]. Fund Outflow Insights - The materials and telecommunications sectors faced significant pressure, with Zijin Mining experiencing a net sell-off of 4.565 billion HKD and China Mobile declining by 2.33% due to intensified industry competition, leading to a total southbound fund reduction of over 16.9 billion HKD [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Multiple institutions noted that the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in January validated the logic of "fundamental recovery + liquidity resonance," with expectations for continued structural rebounds in February [6]. - Everbright Securities highlighted that the current market is in an "earnings vacuum period," with high growth expectations in new economy sectors supported by policy catalysts [6]. - CITIC Securities advised monitoring the potential impact of a peak in lock-up expirations on liquidity in February, while emphasizing the allocation value of quality leaders like Tencent and Alibaba [6]. - Huatai Securities pointed out that Hong Kong stock valuations remain low globally, with a risk premium rate of 3.99% for the Hang Seng Index, significantly higher than the S&P 500, suggesting a dual drive of "profit growth + valuation enhancement" as southbound and foreign fund inflows become more balanced [6]. IPO Market Activity - The IPO market in Hong Kong remained active in January, with 12 companies listed by January 26, raising a total of 34.747 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 480.87% [7]. - Notable listings included domestic GPU company Birun Technology and AI model company Zhiyuan, attracting long-term investments from international funds [7]. - The market anticipates that the IPO fundraising scale in 2026 could exceed 300 billion HKD, with hard technology enterprises continuing to dominate the listing trend [7].