美银Hartnett：终结"黄金大牛市"的只能是"更大的事件"

Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility, including a significant drop in stocks and a rebound in the dollar, has led to a record single-day plunge in silver prices, yet the macroeconomic logic driving the rise of gold and physical assets remains intact, according to Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar has declined by 12% since Trump's inauguration, which is seen as a policy-driven move to boost manufacturing in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin [2][4]. - Historical data shows that since 1970, the average decline in a dollar bear market is 30%, indicating ongoing long-term downward pressure on the dollar, which supports physical assets [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The traditional 60/40 stock-bond strategy is no longer suitable; instead, a "permanent portfolio" consisting of 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold, and 25% cash is recommended, which has shown impressive performance [6][7]. - The "permanent portfolio" strategy recorded a remarkable 23% return in 2025, marking the best performance since 1979 [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Hartnett suggests that the investment trends of the 2020s will be dominated by factors such as war, inflation, protectionism, and wealth redistribution, with gold prices reflecting negative real interest rates in the U.S. [10]. - The potential for a significant capital outflow exists if non-U.S. investors reduce their holdings in U.S. equities and government bonds by just 5%, which could lead to a $1.5 trillion capital outflow [12]. - Hartnett emphasizes that the great bull market in gold can only be ended by "greater events," and the current bullish sentiment may trigger a deleveraging risk in the first half of the year [14]. Group 4: 2026 Trading Strategy - Looking ahead, Hartnett maintains a contrarian view, suggesting that the reverse trade in 2026 may be to go long on bonds, despite acknowledging the risks associated with high global debt levels [17]. - The recommended trading strategy for 2026 includes a "BIG + MID" combination, focusing on Bitcoin, international stocks, gold, and mid-cap stocks, aiming to capture outperforming asset classes under a new macro paradigm [17].