黄金跌9%、白银跌超26%，抄底还是观望？

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged over 65% since the beginning of 2026, driven by a combination of financial attributes returning and industrial demand expansion, leading to a significant revaluation of silver's value in the market [4][9]. Price Movements - As of January 31, 2026, silver prices reached a peak of $120 per ounce after starting the year at approximately $80 per ounce, marking a dramatic increase [8][9]. - On January 27, silver experienced a single-day increase of 14%, reaching $117 per ounce, before a rapid decline to $103 per ounce [8]. - The price volatility continued, with silver recording its largest single-day drop of over 36% on January 31, falling to a low of $74.28 per ounce [8][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a supply shortage for five consecutive years, with a hard gap of 95 million ounces reported [5]. - Investment funds have significantly increased their holdings in silver ETFs, with an estimated increase of 186 million ounces since the beginning of 2025, marking the largest growth outside of 2020 [5]. - Strong physical demand for silver, particularly in China, has led to a premium of about 15% for silver prices in the Chinese market compared to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [10]. Policy and Strategic Resource Positioning - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral, while China has implemented stricter export controls on silver starting in 2026, enhancing its strategic resource status [16][17]. - Russia has included silver in its official reserve assets as part of its federal budget plan for 2025-2027, reflecting a shift towards diversifying its reserves [13][14]. Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - The demand for silver in industries such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure is expected to grow, with significant increases anticipated in the solar power sector [19][20]. - Analysts predict that while short-term volatility may occur, the long-term outlook for silver prices remains bullish due to ongoing industrial demand and financial attributes [21][22].