投机降温黄金回落，监管收紧碳酸锂下调

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market experienced increased divergence during the week of January 26 to January 30, with mixed performance in the base metals sector and a pullback in precious metals [1] - Energy and chemical sectors saw significant gains, with fuel rising by 6.70% and crude oil by 6.54%, while the black series saw slight declines in coking coal, coke, and iron ore [1] Precious Metals Insights - Gold futures experienced volatility, reaching a historical high due to geopolitical risk but then sharply correcting as U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations changed [2][3] - As of January 30, the Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 4.10% to 1161.42 CNY per gram, while London gold fell by 2.07% to 4880 USD per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in 40 years [2] - Global gold supply remains stable, with no significant shortages, and demand is primarily driven by investment, with expectations for 2025 global gold investment demand reaching 2175 tons [2] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium futures market saw a significant correction due to profit-taking and strict regulatory measures, with the lithium carbonate index dropping by 5.62% and the futures contract down by 18.36% [5][6] - Domestic lithium carbonate supply faced temporary constraints, with production decreasing by 2.9% week-on-week, while demand from the electric vehicle sector remains strong [5][6] - Regulatory actions have increased market liquidity risks, and expectations of future supply increases may pressure prices further [6][7] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.3% in January, indicating a return to contraction, with high-tech manufacturing remaining resilient [8][9] - Industrial profits showed a V-shaped recovery in December, with total profits for large industrial enterprises reaching 739.82 billion CNY, marking a 0.6% year-on-year increase [11][12] - Analysts predict that the new momentum in manufacturing will continue to enhance industrial profitability, with expectations for stable growth in 2026 [12]