Microsoft sends Wall Street a $625 billion message

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's disappointment with Microsoft's earnings is primarily due to Azure's growth not meeting high expectations, despite strong overall performance metrics [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter revenue increased by 17% year over year, with operating margins expanding by approximately 160 basis points to 47% [7] - Earnings per share rose by 21% on a constant-currency basis, excluding around $10 billion of OpenAI-related gains [7] Azure Performance - Azure grew 38% year over year in constant currency, surpassing Microsoft's own guidance but falling short of the anticipated 40% growth [2][9] - Microsoft executives indicated that customer demand for Azure is significantly outpacing supply, particularly for advanced AI GPUs, which is intentionally limiting Azure's growth [9][10] Bookings and Backlog - Microsoft's residual performance obligations (RPO) surged by 110% year over year to $625 billion, indicating strong future income potential [4] - Even without OpenAI-related contracts, RPO increased by 28%, reflecting broad-based commercial demand [5] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Morgan Stanley argues that the market is mispricing Microsoft's durability, with a valuation of approximately 21x CY27 earnings estimates [14] - The firm maintains an overweight rating and a price target of $650, suggesting that once investors understand Azure's supply issues, sentiment will improve [15] Microsoft 365 Copilot Adoption - Microsoft reported 15 million paying Microsoft 365 Copilot seats, with over 450 million business users, indicating significant potential for future growth [11] - Daily active users of Copilot have increased tenfold year over year, with 80% of CIOs expecting to use Copilot within the next 12 months [19]