Why Tesla Stock Could Double as Optimus Reaches Human-Level Proficiency This Year

Core Insights - Tesla stock has risen 134% over the past three years, outperforming the S&P 500, despite recent volatility following the fourth-quarter financial update [1] - The company's high valuation reflects its long-term potential in AI services, particularly with the upcoming production of the Optimus humanoid robot [2] Investment and Production Plans - Tesla is set to start Optimus production by the end of this year, repurposing production lines from Model S/X vehicles, with a potential output of 1 million units annually [5] - The company will showcase version 3 of Optimus in the first quarter, expected to demonstrate significant advancements in human-like movements [4] Competitive Advantage - Tesla's access to real-world video data from its vehicle fleet provides a unique advantage in training AI for nuanced decision-making, positioning it as a major player in the humanoid robot market [6] Revenue Model and Future Outlook - The transition to a services business model, including monetizing Optimus as a service, is expected to enhance the lifetime value of the product, similar to Tesla's robotaxis and full self-driving subscriptions [7] - At full production capacity, Optimus is anticipated to become a highly profitable recurring revenue stream, with the stock market likely to begin discounting future earnings as production approaches [8]