Could This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Double in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - AMD is optimistic about its growth prospects for 2026, aiming for a significant comeback in the AI accelerator market despite competition from Nvidia and Broadcom [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - AMD has a diversified chip business, with over 43% of its revenue coming from OEM and gaming, and approximately 47% from data centers, while its embedded processor division contributes about 10% [3]. - The company is less reliant on AI-related sales compared to Nvidia, which may provide some insulation against potential downturns in AI infrastructure spending [4]. Group 2: Growth Projections - AMD's management anticipates a 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for its data center division over the next five years, while other divisions are expected to grow at 10% CAGR [6]. - In Q3, AMD's data center revenue increased by 22% year over year, indicating the need for substantial growth to meet the 60% CAGR target [7]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Valuation - If AMD's stock were to double, it would reach approximately $500 per share, necessitating an earnings per share (EPS) of $10 based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50 [7][8]. - Current analyst EPS estimates for 2026 range from $5.36 to $8.02, which are below the required EPS for a doubled stock price [8]. - AMD's profit margin is currently low compared to Nvidia's, but doubling the profit margin could enhance the likelihood of the stock doubling [10]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - AMD has yet to demonstrate effective competition with Nvidia in the GPU space, which raises skepticism about its ability to achieve the projected growth [11].