摩根士丹利：美联储政策短期内难转向，缩表至少要等到明年

Group 1 - The leadership change at the Federal Reserve is unlikely to alter the monetary policy direction in the short term, as the policy response function will remain fundamentally unchanged despite the upcoming transition from Powell to Walsh [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains its baseline expectation of two rate cuts in the second half of this year, contingent on a decline in tariff-driven inflation and a clear downward trend in overall inflation [2] - The FOMC's voting mechanism restricts abrupt policy shifts, as decisions are made collectively rather than by the chair alone, indicating that any significant deviation from the current policy framework would face substantial opposition [3] Group 2 - Productivity will be a key variable in interpreting the implications of low unemployment, high inflation, and strong economic growth, with the FOMC considering cyclical productivity improvements [4] - The overall tone from the recent Federal Reserve meeting suggests a robust economic activity assessment, and further rate cuts are not guaranteed, especially if unemployment continues to decline and spending remains strong [4] - Even with leadership changes, strong consumer spending alongside persistent inflation and low unemployment may lead the FOMC to maintain current rates for the remainder of the year [4]