Huaxi Securities(SZ:002926) 智通财经网·2026-02-02 02:13Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxi Securities highlights a significant drop in gold prices, with a decline of over 9% on January 30, marking the largest single-day drop in 40 years. This decline is attributed to market concerns over the potential shift in Trump's preference for a weaker dollar, which has historically supported gold prices. The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural issues in the US GDP and persistent expectations of interest rate cuts [1]. Supply - Gold supply is projected to increase by 1% year-on-year by 2025, reaching 5,002.3 tons. Producers are focusing on full-price risk exposure with limited interest in hedging. Despite a positive outlook for gold miners in 2025, the market's median expectation for falling gold prices may lead some participants to adopt a more cautious approach [1]. Demand - Total gold demand (excluding OTC and others) is expected to reach 4,999.4 tons in 2025, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase. Notably, investment demand is projected to surge by 84% to 2,175.3 tons, while demand for gold jewelry is anticipated to decline by 19% to 1,638.0 tons [2]. Jewelry - Global jewelry demand is expected to decline in volume due to rising gold prices, but the value of demand is projected to increase across all markets. This indicates that consumers are willing to spend more on jewelry despite the volume decrease, driven by higher gold prices [3]. Investment - Global gold investment is forecasted to more than double, reaching an impressive $240 billion in 2025. Key drivers include safe-haven demand, geopolitical risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts. The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see a historical high in investment demand, with total purchases of ETFs, gold bars, and coins reaching 1,141 tons [4]. Central Banks - Central bank net gold demand is projected to rise to 230 tons in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 6% increase from the previous quarter. Despite a cautious approach due to rising gold prices, central banks' long-term interest in gold remains strong, with total annual demand reaching 863 tons [5]. Industrial - Gold demand in the technology sector is expected to remain stable, with the fourth quarter showing consistent performance. The demand for gold in electronics is driven by the ongoing AI boom, although there are challenges in other areas of the electronics sector due to capacity constraints [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the acceleration of "de-dollarization" trends are expected to sustain central bank and investor demand for gold. Concerns over global debt and monetary policies are likely to benefit gold prices in the long term. The report suggests focusing on gold resource stocks, which are currently undervalued, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities [8].