澳洲央行要逆势加息？澳大利亚10年期国债收益率逼近5%

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% due to persistent inflation and a strong labor market, marking a significant policy shift as most global central banks are moving towards rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The RBA's potential rate hike contrasts sharply with its previous attempts to stimulate the economy through rate cuts less than six months ago [2]. - Market expectations indicate a 73% probability of a 25 basis point increase in the cash rate [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Impact - The yield on Australia's 10-year government bonds reached 4.81% last week and briefly hit 4.90% following stronger-than-expected inflation data, with forecasts suggesting it may temporarily exceed 5% in the coming months [3][5]. - Analysts believe that if the RBA raises rates in February and May, the 10-year yield could face further upward pressure, although sustaining levels above 5% may be challenging due to demand from overseas investors [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent unexpected strong data, including core inflation remaining above the RBA's target range of 2%-3% and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, has shifted policy expectations [5]. - Strategists emphasize that addressing inflation through rate hikes is crucial to avoid more aggressive future measures [5]. Group 4: Global Monetary Policy Divergence - The potential rate hike by the RBA occurs amid a backdrop of diverging global monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve and some Asian economies nearing rate cuts, while the Eurozone remains cautious and Japan leans towards further tightening [6][7]. - This divergence is reflected in currency movements, with the Australian dollar appreciating approximately 5% this year, indicating a "passive tightening" of financial conditions [8]. Group 5: Rate Hike Context - If the RBA proceeds with the rate hike, it may be viewed more as an "insurance hike" rather than the beginning of a new tightening cycle [9].