科尔尼：2025年中国奢侈品市场：迈向审慎复苏之路报告

Core Insights - The Chinese luxury goods market is on a cautious recovery path, with consumers exhibiting a prudent and optimistic attitude towards spending, leading to significant changes in consumer demographics, category performance, brand preferences, and purchasing channels [1][6][7] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - 80% of respondents are optimistic about the macro economy, 79% about employment, and 82% about policy support, yet per capita luxury spending is expected to decline by 4%, from 146,800 RMB to 141,500 RMB [1][7] - High-ticket categories like large leather goods and watches are under pressure, with declines of 7% and 6% respectively, while fashion and small accessories, as well as jewelry, show slight decreases [1][7][15] Consumer Demographics - Middle-aged, high-income consumers in first-tier cities are the main drivers of recovery, showing stronger willingness and ability to spend, while younger and low-income groups are more cautious [1][7][18] - There is a notable difference in spending expectations across age and income groups, with high-income consumers showing a greater willingness to increase spending [1][7] Brand Preferences - Domestic luxury brands are gaining popularity, with their share of total consumption rising from 39% to 44%, primarily driven by jewelry [2][7][22] - In the fragrance and beauty categories, consumers still prefer international brands, with local brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold becoming popular choices [2][7] Purchasing Channels - Official channels are favored, with offline official channels accounting for 56% and online official channels for 44%. Travel retail channels are also on the rise, with mainland airport duty-free channels at 44% and Hainan offshore duty-free channels at 39% [2][7] - 36% of respondents plan to purchase luxury goods overseas, but most will limit overseas spending to 30% of their total luxury expenditure, with millennials showing the highest intent to buy abroad [2][7] Impact of Tariff Policies - 77% of respondents indicate that US-China tariffs will influence their purchasing behavior, with 50% likely to shift towards domestic brands and 59%-61% avoiding American products or preferring non-US produced American brands [2][7][25] - Some consumers are reducing luxury spending primarily due to increased savings (48%) and a shift towards experiential consumption (38%) [2][7] Future Strategies for Brands - Luxury brands need to enhance brand appeal and trust, improve quality and durability, optimize store services and after-sales, innovate designs based on Chinese consumer preferences, and create exclusive products and experiences to convert consumers' cautious attitudes into actual spending [2][7]