明晚，成品油零售限价或迎“二连涨”

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to increase significantly, marking the first consecutive price hike in 2026, driven by rising international crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Forecast - The upcoming adjustment of domestic refined oil retail prices is projected to exceed the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton, indicating a high probability of an increase [1]. - As of January 30, the reference crude oil price change rate was recorded at 5.32%, leading to an expected increase of 230 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel prices [1]. - The price hike will occur just before the Spring Festival, resulting in higher fuel costs for consumers during the holiday period, with an estimated additional cost of around 9 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent strong performance of international crude oil prices is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and severe cold weather in the U.S., which has disrupted oil production [1]. - The WTI crude oil futures have stabilized above $60 per barrel and have recently surpassed $65 per barrel, contributing to the upward trend in domestic oil prices [1]. - Analysts indicate that the current market conditions suggest a significant tightening of supply, further supporting the anticipated price increase [1].