长城投研速递：宏观波动加剧，市场或迎来节前配置窗口期

Policy Direction - The top-level design of urban renewal is continuously strengthened, and urban renewal practices are deepening across various regions, which is expected to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to support urban renewal actions, evaluating and optimizing detailed plans for proposed urban renewal areas [4] - In 2024, there will be 60,015 urban renewal projects nationwide, with a total investment of 2.9 trillion yuan, focusing on the renovation of old urban communities, urban village transformations, and underground pipeline upgrades [4] Domestic Macro - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the average level for the same period in recent years [5] - The decline in PMI is stronger than seasonal trends, indicating a cautious expansion in production and a need for demand stimulation [5] - The Ministry of Finance has stated that overall expenditure will "only increase" and key areas will be "stronger," suggesting a more proactive macro policy to support total demand in 2026 [5] Foreign Macro - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in January 2026 was in line with market expectations, with a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, adding uncertainty to the potential for restarting interest rate cuts [6] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman suggests a balance between maintaining the Fed's independence and aligning with Trump's policies, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 [8] Bond Market - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern due to mixed factors, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching a resistance level of 1.8% [9] - The market suggests patience in waiting for better allocation or trading opportunities amid the current fluctuations [12] Equity Market - The market structure shifted last week, with cyclical and financial sectors leading gains, while military and power equipment sectors declined [21] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.62%, with 10 out of 31 industries showing gains [13] - The overall value style outperformed growth style, with the National Value Index rising by 1.01% and the National Growth Index falling by 0.59% [14] Investment Strategy - The focus is on emerging technologies as the main line of investment, with value stocks also showing potential [22] - Specific areas of interest include technology growth sectors, non-bank financials benefiting from increased wealth management demand, and cyclical sectors poised for recovery due to domestic demand expansion policies [22]