长城宏观：外部扰动起，关注低点布局机会

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural divergence last week, with cyclical and financial sectors leading gains, while military and power equipment sectors declined [1] - In the industry, oil and petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals continued to rise month-on-month, while communications showed improvement; military, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors experienced significant declines [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weaker performance than the average for the same period in recent years [2] - The price index showed a notable rebound due to rising commodity prices, while the service sector remained stable, and the construction industry required policy support for continued activity [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, but the change in leadership may introduce uncertainty into monetary policy [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current period is marked by a concentration of earnings disclosures for A-share companies, with signs of economic transformation accelerating in Q4 2025 [4] - New economic growth is expanding beyond AI to include overseas markets, resource products, and service consumption, indicating a shift in economic dynamics [4] - The market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on leading companies in niche sectors and the A500 index, as regulatory measures have dampened short-term speculative sentiment [4] Group 4: Investment Directions - Emerging technology remains a primary focus, with significant demand for global AI computing power driving rapid growth in semiconductor equipment and price increases across the industry [5] - Attention should be given to sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, including food, retail, tourism services, and cyclical commodities like oil and chemicals [5]